![]() (The only way to have two years of experience in 2025 is to start in 2023, but there is almost no professional user research and UX design done with current AI systems.) Two years is the bare minimum to develop an understanding of the new design patterns and user behaviors that we see in the few publicly available usability studies that have been done. If AI-UX does happen in 2025, we’ll suffer a stifling lack of UX professionals with two years of experience designing and researching AI-driven user interfaces. I expect the AI-driven UX boom to happen in 2025, but I could be wrong on the specific year, as per Saffo’s Law. AI may lead to salary growth, but this is not yet proven. But don’t expect salary increases in 2024 since the long-term UX salary trends are well-established: UX salaries have been the same for 25 years after adjusting for inflation. UX salaries will likely stabilize in 2024, or only drop slightly below 2023’s levels. There will be UX jobs again in 2024, but they will mostly be traditional UX jobs, designing the same old boring things. (Midjourney)įollowing Saffo’s Law, I admit that even though it’s extraordinarily clear to me that the AI revolution will cause a UX renaissance, this is not likely to happen in a big way in 2024. Saffo’s Law: Never mistake a clear view for a short distance. Those were significant setbacks - the 2023 recession is nothing in comparison. I can’t even count how many recessions I have experienced, but the two worst for UX were the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001 when blood ran in Sand Hill Road (the home of venture capital) and the “great recession” of 2009. ![]() If something cannot continue forever, it will stop - law of nature.īeing old provides many benefits, one of which is that I have seen it before. In particular, the tech giants had grown so bloated with excess staff that a correction was unavoidable. Repeat after me: 2020 to 2022 was an unsustainable bubble. It is not that bad of a setback during a severe recession in the technology business. The 71% drop in job openings for UX designers from 2022 to 2023 was only 23% compared to 2018. The only reason the 2023 numbers look bad was the feeding frenzy of 2022, when UX research job openings were 466% more plentiful than in 2018. Most people would be ecstatic to have the career prospects of a profession that exhibited 53% growth in 5 years. The 73% drop in UX research job openings from 2022 to 2023 means that the 2023 openings are “only” 53% higher than the number from 2018. (Guess what, tomorrow arrived.) The 11% drop in UX earnings for 2023 brings UX compensation levels back in line with the long-term (inflation-adjusted) numbers. There was an unsustainable blip in UX salaries in 2022 due to the red-hot job market that year when companies were hiring like there was no tomorrow. Thousands of UX professionals have been laid off from seemingly good jobs at tech giants like Google and Facebook/Meta.īut is the situation as gloomy as the percentages seem to indicate? No, we're witnessing a market correction, not an apocalypse: Job openings for UX designers were down 71% from 2022 to 2023 on the job site. Job openings for UX researchers were down 73% from 2022 to 2023 on the job site. UX salaries are down 11% for 2023 compared with 2022. ![]() ![]() There has admittedly been some bad news for UX in 2023:
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